Modeling and analyzing the 2014 mumps outbreak in Moscow, Idaho, using the SIR model
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Mumps virus is a contagious disease that causes intense swelling in the parotid and various other glands. The mumps virus is transmitted through both direct and indirect contacts and can result in infertility and hospitalization in severe cases. Moscow, Idaho, experienced an outbreak in 2014 that began with a few students at the University of Idaho and was transmitted quickly throughout the campus. To determine the progression of the mumps outbreak in this town, statistics and disease numbers were gathered from the Idaho Department of Public Health, and trends in susceptible, infected, and removed populations were discovered using a population-independent SIR model. Mumps progression with a population-dependent birthrate was also calculated. Analysis revealed that the mumps epidemic in Moscow is expected to be contained and will eventually die out with much of the population becoming removed. When birthrate was included, the epidemic was also determined to die out, but it is expected to remain endemic and persist at low levels within the population.