Evaluation of World Preparedness Regarding the Outbreak of Emerging Zoonotic Pathogens
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This study examines the threat of emerging infectious disease in the modern world and uses mathematical modeling to develop an entirely new way to respond to infectious disease outbreaks. The study begins with two comparative case studies: one of the 2003 SARS outbreak and one of the 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) outbreak. The case studies examine the time line of each outbreak as well as the communication strategies and disease management policies implemented by China and Canada for the SARS case and Mexico and the United States for the H1N1 case. Next, information gathered from the case studies is quantified and integrated into an SIR model through communication and policy parameters. This model shows how the social elements of disease response impact the biological characteristics and change the trajectory of an outbreak. The intervention impact model developed in Chapter Six of this study provides an entirely new way of addressing infectious disease outbreaks and can help practitioners contain outbreaks more efficiently.